International Linkages
Macroeconomic Linkages Macroeconomic linkages between countries are expressed through their respective current and capital accounts. The current account reflects net …
cfa level III
Yield Curve and the Business Cycle
The shape of the yield curve is frequently cited as a predictor of economic growth and as an indicator of …
The Taylor Rule
The Taylor rule determines the target interest rate using the neutral rate, expected GDP relative to its long-term trend, and …
Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy Monetary policy is often used as a mechanism for intervention in the business cycle. The common theme is that …
Inflation Implications in Relation to the Business Cycle
Inflation means generally rising prices. Inflation typically accelerates late in the business cycle (near the peak). Disinflation means a deceleration in the …
Business Cycle
At a fundamental level, the business cycle arises in response to the interaction of uncertainty, expectational errors, and rigidities that …
Approaches to Economic Forecasting
Econometric Models The application of statistical methods to model relationships among economic variables. Structural models specify functional relationships among variables …
Analysis of Economic Growth
Identifying which economic variables may be most relevant to the current economic environment and discerning or forecasting changes in acceleration …
Challenges in Data Forecasting
Problems encountered in producing forecasts are (1) limitations to using economic data, (2) data measurement error and bias, (3) limitations …
Framework for Developing Capital Market Expectations
Cross-sectional consistency refers to consistency across asset classes regarding portfolio risk and return characteristics. Intertemporal consistency refers to consistency over various investment …