Long Run Equity Return in GGM/Grinold Kroner Framework
In reading 10, the curriculum introduces the following equation. The equation ties the trend growth rate to the value of …
cfa level III
Business Cycles in an Capital Market and Macroeconomic Framework
Business cycles are fluctuations in economic activity that follow a wave like pattern. While generally simplified into a single wave, …
Exchange Rates Forecasting
Currency exchange rate forecasting is particularly difficult, causing investment managers to either fully hedge currency exposure, or accept the volatility. …
Real Estate Forecasting
Real estate is inherently quite different from equities, bonds, and cash. It is a physical asset rather than a financial …
Singer – Terhaar Model
he Singer-Terhaar model is based on two versions of the international Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): one in which global asset markets are fully …
Grinold-Kroner Model
The Grinold-Kroner model states that the expected return of a stock is its dividend yield, plus the inflation rate, plus the real …
Equity Forecasting
When looking at a very long time horizon—over 100 years—mean real returns of equity markets in various countries do not …
Emerging Market Bonds
Investing in emerging market debt involves all the same risks as investing in developed country debt, such as interest rate …
Fixed Income Forecasting
There are three main ways to approach forecasting fixed-income returns. The first is discounted cash flow. This method is really …
Forecasting Asset Class Returns: Intro and Tools
Although investment opportunities are not constant, virtually all forecasting techniques rely on notions of central tendency, toward which opportunities tend …